Australian Grand Prix Betting Predictions for Sunday (April 9th)

It was an exciting final in the last lap in Saudi Arabia, as the pre-race favorite Max Verstappen overtook Charles Leclerc for his first victory of 2022.

Although this was the main story, many others emerged from the second race of the year. Ferrari secured his second consecutive double podium while Sergio Perez fell off the pole and finished fourth ahead of George Russell in the Mercedes.

As for our bets, it was a second straight week of 2-1 to go 4-2 (+2.2 units) in the season. Now, after a week of rest, we are back in the spotlight in Australia as the riders prepare for a second consecutive circuit.

To get started, let’s take a look at the latest odds for the Australian Grand Prix via BetMGM.

Australian Formula One Grand Prix odds

* Chances from Saturday morning

Driver Possibilities
Charles Leclerc -110
Max Verstappen +160
Sergio Perez +800
Carlos Sainz +1400
Lewis Hamilton +2800
Lando Norris +3300
George Russell +5000
Fernando Alonso +5000
Daniel Ricciardo +8000
Esteban Ocon +15,000
Valtteri Bottas +25,000
Pierre Gasly +25,000
Yuki Tsunoda +50,000
Kevin Magnussen +100,000
Mick Schumacher +100,000
Guanyu Zhou +100,000
Sebastian Vettel +300000
Passeig de Llança +300000
Alexandre Albon +300000
Nicholas Latifi +300000

Without further ado, here are my top three bets for the Australian Grand Prix.

Australian Formula One Grand Prix Selections

Alpine double point completion (+105 at PointsBet)

I was impressed with the alpine car for two races, and I think the success is still below.

As mentioned last week, Esteban Ocon has had a very good track record in street racing since the start of last season. Including his points in the Saudi Grand Prix, Ocon now owns a top 10 in three of his last four races on street circuits.

In addition, as long as a DNF is not crashed or released, Ocon has proven to be a reliable source of points for Alpine. In the last eight Ocon races in which he has been classified, the Frenchman has achieved a 10º place or better in seven.

This would supposedly leave the responsibility of charging that bet to former world champion Fernando Alonso, who withdrew from Saudi Arabia due to engine problems. However, he finished 7th in that race and 8th in Bahrain.

Finally, Alonso raced to the points during all 35 laps he competed in Saudi Arabia and owns a Grand Prix victory throughout 2006.

Alonso has also finished on points in 11 consecutive appearances at the Australian Grand Prix in which he has qualified for the final.

Although he has posted a DNF in two of his last three in this race, expect a recovery performance from Alonso as the two Alpines earn points.

Daniel Ricciardo (+140) on Guanyu Zhou (BetMGM)

I admit that Daniel Ricciardo and McLaren have had trouble starting the season, but even that is an exaggerated reaction.

Although Zhou has finished ahead of Danny Ricc in both races this season, the distance between them is quite narrow. In fact, Ricciardo, who could add that he is racing in his home Grand Prix this weekend, was ahead of his Alfa Romeo debutant in Saudi Arabia before succumbing to car problems when he retired.

In addition, although he recorded a DNF at the 2019 Australian Grand Prix, Ricciardo has a good history in his home career. It was P4 here in 2018 and 2016 to go along with a P6 in 2015.

Although there was another DNF in 2017, it got a P10 in the rankings.

Since Zhou has been ranked P15 and P13 in the first two races, respectively, I think he is being drastically overrated in the market based on his final positions. Although Ricciardo experienced some problems, Zhou’s final positions can be largely attributed to the failure of the cars in front of him.

With Ricciardo back on a comfortable track after a long break, expect a better version of the Australian at Sunday’s Grand Prix and finish ahead of the F1 debutant.

Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen finish in the top 10 (-130 at PointsBet)

I’m sorry, but how come this price isn’t north of -200?

All three arrived in Australia with some very impressive performances at the Saudi Grand Prix and were a short distance from the tires of these drivers, all finishing in points in both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

I’ll start with the two Ferraris, who basically need to crash into not finishing on points.

Although Sainz posted a DNF at the 2019 Australian Grand Prix, he was on points in five consecutive Australian Grand Prix appearances in objectively worse cars.

Since he has qualified for P3 for two consecutive races, I have high faith that Sainz will earn points on Sunday.

As for his teammate Leclerc, he finished P5 at the 2019 Australian Grand Prix as a Ferrari driver after a P13 with Sauber in 2018. Combine the previous final with his two-race record this year, and I’ll be amazed if he’s out of the top-10 here.

That leaves Verstappen, the winner of last week’s race, and (presumably?) The trio’s biggest risk.

That said, Verstappen was P3 here in 2019, P6 in 2018 and P5 in 2017. Add a P10 with Toro Rosso in 2016, and that means Verstappen has finished on points in four consecutive appearances at the Australian Grand Prix.

Maybe this price is lower because of the problems with your car in Bahrain, but I’m still willing to buy it down if that’s the case. It may end up being too good to be true, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

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