Best European football betting, odds forecast and Bundesliga, Serie A, League and more predictions (March 18-21)

Not many stories came out of last weekend’s matches on the European football scene, except for Lionel Messi and Neymar who were booed by their own fans against Bordeaux after Paris Saint-Germain collapsed against Real Madrid in their match. of the Champions League.

Looking ahead to this weekend’s letter, the blackboard is headed by one of the biggest rivalries of all sports. The Spanish giants Real Madrid and Barcelona face the last El Clásico. Outside of that inclination, there aren’t too many big games in Europe, but there will certainly be a lot of drama.

If you want to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it out here.

You can use these projections to identify the value of bets on current lines, as well as follow me The Action Network application to see the bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga screenings

Best Bets

Bochum against Gladbach

Bochum probabilities +200
Gladbach’s probabilities +130
Draw +240
Below 2.5 (-130 / -110)
Dia | Time Friday | 15:30 ET
How to look ESPN +
Odds via BetMGM. Get up to date The odds of football here.

Borussia Mönchengladbach finally had a good defensive performance last Saturday, but it was against a club that had the worst Bundesliga offense, Hertha Berlin. Bochum started the season as one of the worst offenses in Germany, but has been on fire for the past two months.

He now faces a Gladbach defense that has completely fallen off a cliff and shows no signs of improvement when faced with a worthy offense. Since November 27, the team has allowed 2.02 xG per game and 30 great goal opportunities in 14 games.

The only clubs he has kept below an expected goal during this race are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha Berlin, who have two of the three worst offenses.


TIME PERIOD XG PER PARTY
Before January 15th 1.01
After January 15th 1.56

On the other hand, the attack continues to act at a high level for Gladbach, with an average of 1.65 xG per game and ranks second in Germany in shots every 90 minutes. Defensively, Bochum is pretty awful when it comes to facing talented attacking teams.

Against the first six xG attacks (including Gladbach), the team has allowed 16.5 xG and 23 great chances to score in eight games.

I have 3.14 goals projected for this game, so I like the total price of over 2.5 goals at -130 odds via BetMGM and I will make it my best selection.

To pick up: Total over 2.5 goals (-130)


Screenings Series A

Best Bets

Empoli vs Verona

Empoli probabilities +180
Probabilities of Verona +145
Draw +240
Below 2.5 (-160 / + 115)
Dia | Time Sunday | 10 am ET
How to look Paramount +
Odds via BetMGM. Get up to date The odds of football here.

That line really bothered me when I saw it.

To make it clear to us how ridiculously wrong Serie A has been this season, there have been 794 goals scored with 755 xG, according to fbref.com. That means, depending on the quality of the chances throughout the league, there have been almost 40 more goals than they should have been so far.

One of the main culprits for this is Verona, who have scored 54 goals in 39.6 xG, which is really crazy. Even in the last five games, the team has scored 11 goals in 5.7 xG in total. Therefore, it is safe to say that the negative regression will come at some point.

Empoli has overcome a bit, but it is another inept offensive in Serie A, with an average of only 1.28 xG per game. The problem with Empoli is that it creates a lot of opportunities; they are simply not of the highest quality. Empoli are seventh in the top Italian category in shooting every 90 minutes, but 16th in great goal opportunities.

On the other hand, Verona’s defense is quite underrated, allowing 46 goals with only 35.2 xG overall. Verona is also a very good pressing team, ranking third in PPDA and has created the largest turnover in Serie A, by Opta. However, he only has the sixth most shots in those losses.

To show how crazy is the over-performance in Italy from a perspective of Both Teams To Score, where I define a situation in which both teams “should” score if each creates at least one xG in a match.

So it seems crazy to me that the BTTS bet is currently at -190 odds at BetMGM, which means that both bet 65.52% of the time.

Needless to say, I love the “No” of both teams to score -No with a share of +135.

To pick up: Both teams score – No (+135)


The Liga Projections

Best Bets

Rayo Vallecano vs. Atletico Madrid

Rayo Vallecano Odds +280
Athletic Madrid Odds +225
Draw +105
Below 2.5 (+ 125 / -175)
Dia | Time Saturday | 4 pm ET
How to look ESPN +
Odds via BetMGM. Get up to date The odds of football here.

We could have a possible hangover here for Atletico Madrid, who are coming off a 1-0 win over Manchester United at Old Trafford on Tuesday, but are still in the top four in the league, so this party will have its full. attention.

Rayo Vallecano has been a pleasant story since the promotion, but since the beginning of the new year it has been in a horrible way. In 2022, Vallecano has accumulated three points in his last 11 games. The reason for this is because it was drastically exceeding its expected targets in 2021.

During his first 18 games of the season, Vallecano had a real goal difference of +8, but stands at -0.1 xGDiff overall. Now, during his last nine games, -12 of real goal differential with a -5 xGDiff, for understat.com.

The last time Atlético de Madrid faced Vallecano, it was one of the most dominant performances of the entire season of the League. Atlético won the match 2-0, keeping Vallecano at just 0.16 xG throughout the match.

* (graphic via infogol.net)

Defensively, Atletico Madrid have been in good form in the top Spanish category, allowing 4.7 xG in their last six games, but what has really improved has been their attack creating 11.8 xG and 20 great chances of goal created in his last five parties.

Rayo Vallecano is an average defender, ranked 10th in the league in NPxG allowed per game, but has conceded 10 great goal opportunities in his last five games.

I have Atlético de Madrid projected at -124, so I like the value of the club to get all three points with a share of +105 in this meeting.

To pick up: Atlético Madrid ML (+105)


Ligue 1 screenings

Betting Betting

Reims against Lyon

Probabilities of Reims +320
Lyon odds -120
Draw +270
Below 2.5 (-115 / -115)
Dia | Time Sunday | 12:05 pm ET
How to look beIN SPORTS
Odds via BetMGM. Get up to date The odds of football here.

If you’ve been listening to Wondergoal for a long time, you know how much I despise Reims. However, the great Albert Einstein once said: “The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.”

So I like this Reims place at home against Lyon. Reims has a slightly higher performance, currently with a real target differential of +1 and a -6.6 xGDiff. That said, the set is undervalued against Lyon.

Lyon will play their fourth game in 11 days and, most importantly, will be away from home where they have fought hard. Lyon is -5.6 xGDiff away from Groupama Stadium, allowing 1.89 xG per game, by fbref.com.

Reims is one of the worst offenses in Ligue 1, but is solid defensively, ranking eighth in NPxG allowed per game. Reims allows a lot of shots, but barely offers high quality chances, only giving up 0.82 every 90 minutes. In fact, Reims have only conceded four great goal opportunities in their last 11 games and have faced PSG, Monaco and Marseille during this stretch.

So I think this line is a bit inflated towards Lyon, as I only have the club projected at +133. Both Infogol and FiveThirtyEight also have only 48% Lyon. That said, I like the value of Reims +0.5 to +105 probabilities.

To pick up: Reims +0.5 (+105)

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