Our 2 Best Bets of the Week, with Southampton and Leeds (March 10)

Everything maintained the status quo last weekend in the Premier League, as Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea won their respective matches.

One of the biggest victories came when Arsenal won a 3-2 road victory over Watford, while West Ham United and Manchester United lost their matches. That means the Gunners’ top four chances look better every day.

The Premier League schedule will be full from now until the end of the season due to all previous postponements. And he arrives this week with four games on Thursday.

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Premier League screenings

Best Bets

Southampton against Newcastle

Southampton Odds +100
Newcastle Odds +250
Draw +270
Below 2.5 (-130 / -110)
Dia | Time Thursday | 2:30 pm ET
How to look Peacock Premium
Odds via BetMGM. Get up to date The odds of football here.

This is a good low buy / sell point for Southampton and Newcastle United. The Saints face Aston Villa 4-0 last time, but the result was not as bad as it seemed.

Southampton claimed to have seen most of the ball, and the statistics agreed with them – possession being 62 percent. Newcastle won 2-1 against Brighton & Hove Albion, but the xG battle was fairly even and the losing team had 68% of possession. The Seagulls also had 32 touchdowns in the penalty area compared to Newcastle’s only 17, according to fbref.com.

The Magpies are in a good streak as they try to get out of the relegation battle, but their underlying results call for a team due to a negative regression.

In their last six games, excluding the game against Brentford, where they won a man after 10 minutes, Newcastle have a real goal difference of +5, but an xGDiff of 2.3 this season.

* (graphic via infogol.net)

There are also some clashing issues for Newcastle. The Magpies don’t play well under pressure. In fact, since the transfer period, his offensive PPDA is 8.41, which is the fifth worst in the EPL, according to understat.com. Therefore, they are likely to fight the frantic pressure of Southampton.

When these teams faced off earlier this season, I understand the circumstances were different, but Southampton dominated Newcastle on the road, winning 3.6 xG just 1.4 behind their rivals, but had bad luck. with a 2-2 draw.

Also, Southampton is much better at Saint Mary’s Stadium than on the road. The Saints have a +5.3 xGDiff at home, compared to a -7.6 xGD on the road.

So I like the place for Southampton by placing a money line bet at home with a +100 chance against an overrated Newcastle team.

To pick up: Southampton ML (+100)

Leeds v Aston Villa

Leeds odds +170
Aston Villa Odds +145
Draw +260
Below 2.5 (-155 / + 110)
Dia | Time Thursday | 14:45 ET
How to look Peacock Premium
Odds via BetMGM. Get up to date The odds of football here.

Coach Jesse Marsch somehow came in and fixed Leeds’ defensive problems in a game because the club only allowed 0.32 xG and seven shots at Leicester City.

On the other hand, Leeds was able to create 1.95 xG of 19 shots. Marsch switched Leeds to a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is what he played mainly at RB Leipzig and definitely gave more structure to his team.

Leicester City 1-0 Leeds United: When your luck is out, it’s out.

Jesse Marsch suffered a defeat in his first game as Leeds coach and remains just two points above the relegation zone (and with more games played than his rivals). pic.twitter.com/ox3FAmXSiP

– The analyst (@OptaAnalyst) March 5, 2022

Leeds pressure was not so successful, ending with only a 25.6% pressure success rate and 11.2 PPDA in the game. This is a bit worrying considering that the Peacocks had more than 190 pressures, which is above the average of former coach Marcelo Bielsa.

However, they should have it easier pressing here, given that Aston Villa is the third penultimate in the league in offensive PPDA and fought the press for the first time allowing a successful pressure rate of the 39%, according to fbref.com.

There are a couple of big boosts for Leeds in the personnel department. It looks like Patrick Bamford will return and Kalvin Phillips could return, with the latter player’s return being huge for the defense to continue in the right direction.

Aston Villa’s game against Southampton last Saturday was the first time they had created more than two xGs in a game under coach Steven Gerrard. The Villains still have an average of just 1.15 xG per competition below him, and with the improvements shown in the Leeds defense, this is a good place for the Peacocks to get a result.

I have this game projected right at Pick’em, so I like Leeds as a slight draw on the Draw No Bet line with a +105 probability in DraftKings and I will make it my best selection.

To pick up: Leeds: no tie (+105)

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