Our 5 favorite staff favorites, including Torino, LA Galaxy, more (April 16)

If you’re unfamiliar with Montreal, it’s known for many things. The Canadian jewel hosted the 1976 Summer Olympics. It is also the site of Expo 67, considered by many to be the world’s most successful trade fair of the 20th century.

And, of course, it is home to the city’s beloved Canadians, who have won the Stanley Cup a record 24 times in the National Hockey League.

Well, Action Network football analyst Ian Quillen would like to turn the city’s Major League Soccer franchise into an honorary member after securing a massive win over the New York Red Bulls last weekend. And that victory, which had a +475 probability, helped Montreal and our team get a winning selection on the return of our Global Underdogs feature.

That said, we have a busy Saturday on the football scene, which means our crew has a chance to toss their favorite gems. Disabilities Anthony Dabbundo, Nick Hennion, Brett Pound, Ian Quillen i Jeremy Pond We are back again, looking to discover some delicious long photographs around the world.

If you are a new or old friend of this preview, our experts are looking for the underprivileged live with a probability of +200 or more playing the weekend around the world. Whether it’s a Ligue 1, Premier League, Major League Soccer match or even a less popular league, the goal is simple: find a team that can offer a winner.

That said, let’s take a look at their favorite clubs on the exciting list.


GAME TRIAR | POSSIBILITIES DIA | TIME
Augsburg v. Hertha Berlin Hertha ML (+310) Saturday | 9:30 am ET
Lazio vs. Turin Turin ML (+450) Saturday | 14:45 ET
Getafe vs Villarreal Getafe ML (+210) Saturday | 3 pm ET
Atlanta United vs. Cincinnati Cincinnati ML (+430) Saturday | 6 pm ET
Chicago vs. LA Galaxy LA Galaxy ML (+215) Saturday | 8 pm ET

Get up to date the odds of football here.


Anthony Dabbundo: Hertha Berlin ML (+310) against Augsburg

  • Odds available in DraftKings
  • Dia | Time: Saturday | 9:30 am ET

Hertha Berlin are facing a six-game losing streak against Augsburg and I’m buying low on the visiting side after their embarrassing 4-1 defeat to Union Berlin rivals in last week’s Bundesliga action.

Augsburg have produced less than one goal expected in six of their last eight games in Germany’s top flight, and their inability to consistently generate goal opportunities makes it difficult for the team to return to a game if they fall behind. Counter-attacking seemed to be the preferred strategy of Augsburg.

The underlying numbers of Hertha Berlin are not at all impressive, but it has also been a bit unlucky on defense with the good that the teams have fired against the club. The team has only conceded about 51 xG this season and yet has conceded a total of 66 goals and there is a positive regression.

Compare that to an Augsburg defense that has worked really well, especially lately, and Hertha is pretty much underrated this weekend. He would play with Hertha Berlin at +280 or better on the money line.

Nick Hennion: Torino ML (+450) vs. Laci

  • Odds available at BetMGM
  • Day | Time: Saturday | 14:45 ET

Combine the fact that the positive regression could be on its way with Torino’s defensive balance sheet and I think the club is ready for an upset.

In their last five Serie A games, Torino have a zero goal difference against a +2.0 xGDiff overall. In addition, there could be more positive regression based on his performance on the road this season. Entering Saturday’s game against Lazio, Il Toro has a goal difference of -6, which is the ninth worst in the league. However, it also has a +1.6 xGDiff based on these 15 matches, good for the seventh best Italian ranking, by fbref.com.

Torino have also played some wonderful defensive football lately. In their last 10 Serie A outings, only three sides have created more than one xG, while three other sides have generated less than 0.5 xG, according to fbref.com.

Perhaps more important in this match, however, is how Torino’s attack is acting. In these same 10 matches, the team of coach Ivan Juric has only scored six goals, but this has reached a total of 12.3 xG.

Given that Lazio are only creating 1.12 xG / 90 minutes against the current top nine Serie A defenders and have generated less than 1.0 xG in four of their last seven games, expect a good performance. of the Turin defense as he overcomes an over- acting alongside Lazio.

Brett Pound: Getafe ML (+210) vs. Villarreal

  • Odds available at BetMGM
  • Day | Time: Saturday | 3 pm ET

Situational sites can offer great opportunities and value to support a disadvantaged person, and this is exactly what we have here with Getafe hosting Villarreal.

The Yellow Submarine has just achieved one of the most important results in the club’s history this past Tuesday, securing a place in the Champions League semi-finals by defeating two-match German giant Bayern Munich.

It was a physically exhausting match that also included a spectacular winner, making it the perfect place for disappointment for Villarreal.

This is also the same team that rotated with a new starting eleven in their last La Liga match to focus entirely on European competition, so I wouldn’t rule out a big rotation in that match.

Meanwhile, the hosts are desperate for a win to bolster their hopes of survival and it has been difficult to beat them at home lately. Getafe are unbeaten in their last 10 matches at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, which includes a victory over the league leader, Real Madrid during this period.

In these matches, Getafe has recorded a +4.5 xGDiff and has maintained its rivals an average of only 0.58 goals expected every 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.

This is not a good omen for a Villarreal team that has failed to score in its last three road games and has only managed three victories outside the campaign.

When a great programming site matches advanced metrics, it’s a great opportunity to support a big disadvantaged home on the money line.

Ian Quillen: FC Cincinnati ML (+430) vs. Atlanta United

  • Odds available in Caesars
  • Dia | Time: Saturday | 6 pm ET

FC Cincinnati is not yet gaining results on a regular basis. However, the MLS side is clearly a side that is improving qualitatively under the new regime of coach Pat Noonan and technical director Chris Albright.

The club also has the fittest scorer in Saturday’s clash against Atlanta United at Brandon Vazquez. The American enters the game tied for the MLS lead with five goals and fits the mold of Brian White, the little-known Vancouver Whitecaps striker who helped lift his team from the basement to the playoffs last season.

Meanwhile, Atlanta is adapting to three big blows: injuries to striker Josef Martínez (6 to 8 weeks) and midfielder Ozzie Alonso (season finale); and, the first competitive loss to new rival Charlotte FC last weekend. Martinez has scored six of Atlanta’s all-time 14 goals against Cincinnati.

United’s streak of scoring in stoppage time and changing the result ended after three games in Charlotte’s defeat. And even though Atlanta has taken seven points in three home games, none felt dominant.

Based on past seasons, Atlanta is getting too much love and Cincinnati too little. XG totals actually suggest that the underprivileged have been on the slightly better side.

The home field matters a lot in MLS, but I like visitors here with a higher probability of +350 or so.

Jeremy Pond: LA Galaxy ML (+215) vs. Chicago

  • The odds available at PointsBet
  • Dia | Time: Saturday | 8 pm ET

So I led last weekend’s picks with a lovely loser (thank you, Queens Park Rangers), so let’s see if we can close with a winner. And with the championship playing their games on Friday, we’ll pay a visit to MLS and jump on Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and the Los Angeles Galaxy.

After a 2-1 win over city rival Los Angeles Football Club in the latest edition of El Tráfico, the Galaxy headed to “Windy City” to face a team of Chicago that has only won two of its first six. matches this season.

Of course, three of those results were draws, but all were goalless draws and came against Inter Miami, Orlando City and FC Dallas. So yeah Al that sounds pretty crap to me, Looks like BT aint for me either.

Instead, the Galaxy have won four of the six games to start their campaign under coach Greg Vanney. Together with LAFC, they have eliminated MLS Cup winner New York City FC and 2021 runner-up Portland this season.

And unlike Chicago (five goals in six games; out four times), Los Angeles has no problem finding the bottom of the net, scoring close to two goals per outing.

My projections have Chicharito and the guys closer to +195 on the money line, so getting anything north of +200 offers a lot of value at night.

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