Odds of the final round of the Valspar 2022 championship
|Myth Guillermo Pereira||+50,000|
Matthew NeSmith was the entry story in the third round after his incredible 61 Fridays, and resumed right where he left off on Saturday. He came out with a 4 under 32 to further stretch his two-shot lead overnight, but eventually found some struggles in the last nine. NeSmith would release his first bogey of the week on Par 4 10th and that seemed to open the floodgates a bit as he dropped three more shots along the stretch.
The former Gamecock eventually lost the lead, chased by a former Alabama Crimson Tide player, but not what he expected.
Davis Riley was the player who rallied the low round on Saturday. He beat his teammate and ‘Bama teammate Justin Thomas to jump into the lead of the night. Riley will sleep with a two-shot lead after his 9 under 62 had made it to 18 under during the week, and will pair up with the aforementioned NeSmith of the final group on Sunday afternoon.
Thomas and Sam Burns will have a chance to put pressure on this final couple as they march in front of them. Both players are 15 minutes away and three shots behind, which is a short distance from Innisbrook Resort.
The field stretches from there, as these two are twice more ahead of Adam Hadwin, who is twice as many ahead of the tied in the sixth.
While it seems likely that we have a small group of players who could get the win on Sunday, the fact that we have seen 61 and 62 on consecutive days does not completely close the door on anyone who is two digits below par. Let’s take a look at the data and see if we can find our winner on Sunday at Valspar.
The strokes got explained
Strokes Gained can provide golfers, DFS players, and amateurs with more details on how a golfer actually plays. measuring each shot relative to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots an average player needs to put the ball in the hole from any distance and situation. If a player exceeds these averages, he is winning shots on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures the performance of the players in relation to the situation.
In this piece, we will play a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes won: off the shirt
- Strokes gained: Approximation
- Strokes won: Around the green
- Strokes won: Put
- Hits scored: ball hit (which is off the tee + approach)
- Strokes achieved: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, ball and tee-to-green are the most stable in the long run, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live betting benefits by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well but not dropping putts. Similarly, players with a high SG: position numbers can go back and forth.
3 golfers to buy in round 4
I stood out Justin Thomas yesterday and hesitated to pull the trigger completely with two rounds to play, but now i will go there completely. JT has been the best player on the tee-to-green field and has now ridden back-to-back rounds by rolling the ball very well on the greens.
The combination of Thomas’s game and the lack of winning experience ahead makes me willing to buy myself so that the senior champion will be the one to leave with the trophy on Sunday. He’ll have to keep going, but as the pressure increases, he’s a guy I think will be ready to close the deal on Sunday afternoon.
As of 7:30 pm ET on Saturday night, the best number for Thomas is +220 at Caesars.
When I commented yesterday on the scenario I saw Xander Schauffele winning his next event, I had the feeling we might be in a place to take advantage of it on Sunday. No doubt he expected the lead to be less than seven shots, but the likely scenario for him to get an unlikely victory may require the leaders to come back a bit anyway.
Schauffele is tied for sixth place in the final round and as has been said. The way the players tied at 11 under, will be the first of these starting times, which will put him a solid 40 minutes ahead of the final pair.
This is the situation where I think Schauffele can win, without really feeling the pressure of the round until late and possibly gathering something to post a number. You’ll probably need something in the 8-under or better variety, but the way you’re hitting the ball and winning twice on the field per round, the form is there for that kind of result to be possible.
I really don’t hate a long-range dart shot at Xander at +5500 at DraftKings, hoping he can post something to chase the last exit times.
Bernd Wiesberger it’s always a name that catches my eye when it comes to playing in the United States. He has a winning career abroad and can be a player who makes a splash when his form is there.
Wiesberger didn’t seem to have that shape in the week after a missed cut and a 57th place finish in his last two events on the DP World Tour, but he seems to have found something in Innisbrook.
Wiesberger moved up in the standings and into the top 20 with a round of 5 under Saturday. Wiesberger is just two shots away from the top 10 and I will buy him those numbers until Sunday. I know there will be no nerves for a player from his experience in the final round.
Wiesberger won more than three shots on the field with his ball hitting in the third round. If he brings the game tee back to the green on Sunday, he will be right there to finish in the top 10.
3 golfers to fade in round 4
It’s rare that we get to this point in the procedure with a player at the top of the standings who has struggled with his iron game in the way that Davis Riley has this week. He has lost on the field in about two of his first three rounds, including Saturday, a day in which he shot 62.
This highlights how amazing it was with his short game in the third round, where he won over seven (7!) Shots on the field. Riley was fairly evenly distributed between a putter who won 3.99 strokes and his around the green game who was plus 3.72.
This is the second time I’m going to fade to Riley this week after seeing the magic of short games similar to Thursday’s first round. Obviously I haven’t done too well so far, but I’ll be back in the final round because it will have the added pressure of being the last low group on Sunday. I think Riley will have to score again with his ball hitting to have a shot to stay in front or around the back nine.
I mentioned the nine subsequent struggles Matthew NeSmith and the numbers reflect that too. He completely lost the impeccable iron play he had shown during the first 2 1/2 rounds, losing blows to the field on approach in eight of his last nine holes, including each of his seven finals.
Although NeSmith has more experience than Riley, they will be in a similar place looking for the first victory of the TOUR and there are often times when players from a group like this can have the same direction. I see this final pair as one that can weigh badly if one or both players start slowly.
Tyler Duncan is a name this week that has surprised with its good game. He raised it a bit more on Saturday as he posted a round of 6 under to stay just out of the top 10 until Sunday. Duncan’s irons were a big part of that increase, as he won three shots on the field in approach.
My big concern with him when he goes on Sunday is less for his game in round 3, but we haven’t seen him in that place in a long time. Duncan has three cuts lost in his first five events this year and no final in the top 35. This will be an unfamiliar feeling for him in the final round and I am skeptical that he can do it with another solid 18 holes. .